
by Jay W. Van Hoosier
On The day President-elect Barack Obama visited the White House, a new national poll suggested that the current occupant at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue is the most unpopular president since approval ratings were first measured more than sixty years ago.
Seventy-six percent of those surveyed in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey disapprove of how President Bush is handling his job. That is an all-time high dating back to World War II and the administration of Harry Truman.
If it can be accepted that the President-elect and the Democrats seem to have won largely on the message of change, then why did Senator John McCain and the Republicans lose?
Well, here’s my explanation. I think are broad reasons for the resounding Republican loss and that they need to rethink their ideas before they can start winning again. The Republican Party has become a party bereft of original thought and is trapped by outdated ideas. The Reagan-Thatcher revolution of low taxes, deregulation and tight money supply is not even close to being relevant to the problems of under-regulated financial products, huge deficits and a deepening recession. Add to that the Republican Party’s social conservative message is completely out of tune with an increasingly young, diverse and tolerate electorate – an electorate that is globally aware.
“Wait a minute there, Van Hoosier,” I can here it now, “the election was all about the economy, stupid!” The economy was definitely an issue, but how soon we forget that President Bush’s approval ratings had plummeted to historic lows by 2005 even when the economy seemed to be on a steady course. Let’s think about this a moment – could it be that the vigorous unilateralism openly advocated by Bush and the so-called neo-cons was finally recognized by most Americans to have weakened the country’s influence abroad? Can I hear a resounding “Duh?” The fact of the matter is that the policy of excessive reliance on military force has yielded few results relative to the costs – in treasure and blood.
At the heart of Bush’s ideology was regime change. Whether in Iraq, North Korea or Iran, the basic goal was to refuse any kind of negotiation or diplomacy and instead try to overthrow the government and replace it with a democratic and friendly one. Most Americans now recognize that, however pleasant this sounds in theory, the real world is a complicated place and it cannot be transformed by magic or military power – even if the United States wants it to be so.
You can here the social conservatives screaming. “You want us to negotiate with terrorists!” As pleasant as this sounds to those who are currently licking their election wounds at this time, like it or not, it is the reality of our current world that keeping the channels of communication open – even with countries that do not see eye to eye with us – is extremely important. As former Secretary of State Madeline Albright said, “Talking is not necessarily making nice. It is delivering tough messages and listening.”
Recently, even Bush has seen the necessity of this. Over the past three years, he has negotiated with North Korea and Libya and even taken baby steps with Iran. He launched a high-profile peace process between the Palestinians and Israelis and has made encouraging proposals about global warming. These are all steps Bush actively opposed during his first term. Necessity has moved him – isn’t it amazing how failure makes the mind lucid?
So how can the Republican Party arise anew? They have to realize that the world is changing and that the old rules do not apply. They need to be innovative as Ronald Reagan was in 1980. Shouting “USA rocks” is cheap rhetoric and is no longer part of the real world. The real challenge, for the Republican Party and Democrats as well, is not to boast about America’s might but to use its capabilities – military, political, intellectual – to work with others to create a more stable, peaceful and prosperous world – a world in which American interests and ideals will be secure.
So to summarize what you're saying, Republicans must become Democrats if they want to adopt a brand that mainstream America will accept.
ReplyDeleteThey've got to finally toss the social conservatives onto the refuse heap of the Conservative Party (the Libertarians don't really want them), or some other fringe group that will embrace them. They need to embrace the fact that unfettered Capitalism will succumb to greed and the lower base elements of human nature, and that principled regulation - and actual enforcement, which is what was really so sorely lacking in recent years - is necessary to contain those greedy urges to abandon principles.
They also need to learn that, despite the fact that elections are ABOUT pandering to the masses, you simply cannot assume that the slobbering electorate is completely ignorant, for fear that you will piss them off and reap an electoral ass-kicking (i.e. no more Sarah Palin nominations in an effort to show that you've got a Hillary on your side).
I expect that the Republicans will lick their wounds an then do exactly the opposite, which is fine by me.
I agree with with most of your points Jay. But I don't know if I agree with the reasons for the dip in Bush's popularity in 2005. I don't think it was because of the americans rejecting the neocons idea of unilateralism. In 2004 we bought into this and re elected Bush. And to top it off it was known that the reasons we went to war in Iraq were wrong. We either had incompetant government are we were lied to. We still elected Bush. We were behind him. Less than a year later Bush's popularity started to slip. Not because of the rejection of the neocons or unilaterlism. But because it became obvious that the war in Iraq was going south. Soldiers continued to die at alarming rates for what seemed to be nothing and Bush looked like he did not know what he was doing. That's when his popularity dropped. Americans do not like to lose. And they punish presidents who do not do well during war time. Look at Truman(popular now but rejected in 1952 because of the Korean war, look at Johnson rejected in 1968 because of the Vietnam War. Heck look at the great one himself, Lincoln. Chances are if Sherman had not taken Atlanta before the election McClellen would have been elected. Since then, I agree, Americans have rejected neocons and are worried about the reduction of American influence abroad. But it all started because the war went south.
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